Canonical OOS diagnostics below are versioned validation evidence, never capital authorization. The cross-sectional company table remains an exploratory screen: its convenient current fundamentals are not treated as point-in-time alpha inputs. Complete experiment provenance stays in authenticated Ops.
Canonical OOS validation
distribution, decay, and predeclared baseline ladder
US
ML candidate
Evidence · VERY_LOW
Mean rank IC0.010
Median0.009
ICIR0.08
Positive dates58%
OOS dates24
Folds4
Signal decay
Horizon
Mean IC
Median
ICIR
Positive
Dates
1d
0.036
0.023
0.25
58%
24
5d
0.003
0.009
0.03
54%
24
10d
0.038
0.071
0.35
67%
24
20d
0.015
0.006
0.12
58%
24
40d
0.029
0.028
0.25
61%
23
60d
0.022
0.008
0.22
55%
22
Model ladder · after costs
FAIL
Model
Gross spread
Net spread
Turnover
Dates
Selected candidate
+0.46%
-0.14%
300%
24
12m momentum · required
+0.91%
+0.70%
106%
24
Equal-factor composite · required
-2.64%
-3.09%
227%
24
Regularized linear · required
+0.90%
+0.32%
287%
24
Random expectation · required
0.00%
0.00%
·
24
permutation_null · required
·
+0.14%
·
24
Candidate must beat every required simpler baseline on net OOS decile spread. Fixed cost: 20 bps one way, using the same eligible rows across required comparisons. Failure is a terminal research veto.
Norway
Composite candidate
Evidence · MODERATE
Mean rank IC0.028
Median0.034
ICIR0.13
Positive dates56%
OOS dates84
Folds14
Signal decay
Horizon
Mean IC
Median
ICIR
Positive
Dates
1d
-0.005
0.023
-0.03
56%
84
5d
0.031
0.039
0.15
58%
84
10d
0.013
0.001
0.06
50%
84
20d
0.030
0.039
0.14
57%
84
40d
-0.000
-0.033
-0.00
45%
84
60d
0.005
0.025
0.02
52%
84
Model ladder · after costs
FAIL
Model
Gross spread
Net spread
Turnover
Dates
Selected candidate
+0.88%
+0.36%
260%
84
12m momentum · required
+1.18%
+0.97%
103%
84
Equal-factor composite · required
+0.01%
-0.44%
223%
84
Regularized linear · required
+1.30%
+0.67%
315%
84
Random expectation · required
0.00%
0.00%
·
84
permutation_null · required
·
+0.64%
·
84
Candidate must beat every required simpler baseline on net OOS decile spread. Fixed cost: 20 bps one way, using the same eligible rows across required comparisons. Failure is a terminal research veto.
Fundamental screen
NO,US · top 25 of 621 names · refreshed 3h ago · a research screen, not a validated edge